No Bull, no Fluff, No Smudges

January 13, 2022 | FlaglerLive | Leave a Comment

The world witnessed record-breaking climate and weather disasters in 2021, from destructive flash floods that swept through mountain towns in Europe and inundated subway systems in China and the U.S., to heat waves and wildfires. Typhoon Rai killed over 400 people in the Philippines; Hurricane Ida caused an estimated US$74 billion in damage in the U.S.

Globally, it was the sixth hottest year on record for surface temperatures, according to data released by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in their annual global climate report on Jan. 13, 2022. But under the surface, ocean temperatures set new heat records in 2021.

As climate scientist Kevin Trenberth explains, while the temperature at Earth’s surface is what people experience day to day, the temperature in the upper part of the ocean is a better indicator of how excess heat is accumulating on the planet.

The Conversation spoke with Trenberth, coauthor of a study published on Jan. 11, 2022, by 23 researchers at 14 institutes that tracked warming in the world’s oceans.

The world’s oceans are hotter than ever recorded, and their heat has increased each decade since the 1960s. This relentless increase is a primary indicator of human-induced climate change.

As oceans warm, their heat supercharges weather systems, creating more powerful storms and hurricanes, and more intense rainfall. That threatens human lives and livelihoods as well as marine life. The oceans take up about 93% of the extra energy trapped by the increasing greenhouse gases from human activities, particularly burning fossil fuels. Because water holds more heat than land does and the volumes involved are immense, the upper oceans are a primary memory of global warming. I explain this in more detail in my new book “The Changing Flow of Energy Through the Climate System.”

Our study provided the first analysis of 2021’s ocean warming, and we were able to attribute the warming to human activities. Global warming is alive and well, unfortunately.

The global mean surface temperature was the fifth or sixth warmest on record in 2021 (the record depends on the dataset used), in part, because of the year-long La Niña conditions, in which cool conditions in the tropical Pacific influence weather patterns around the world.

There is a lot more natural variability in surface air temperatures than in ocean temperatures because of El Niño/La Niña and weather events. That natural variability on top of a warming ocean creates hot spots, sometimes called “marine heat waves,” that vary from year to year. Those hot spots have profound influences on marine life, from tiny plankton to fish, marine mammals and birds. Other hot spots are responsible for more activity in the atmosphere, such as hurricanes. While surface temperatures are both a consequence and a cause, the main source of the phenomena causing extremes relates to ocean heat that energizes weather systems.

We found that all oceans are warming, with the largest amounts of warming in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica. That’s a concern for Antarctica’s ice – heat in the Southern Ocean can creep under Antarctica’s ice shelves, thinning them and resulting in calving off of huge icebergs. Warming oceans are also a concern for sea level rise.

The global heating increases evaporation and drying on land, as well as raising temperatures, increasing risk of heat waves and wildfires. We’ve seen the impact in 2021, especially in western North America, but also amid heat waves in Russia, Greece, Italy and Turkey.

The warmer oceans also supply atmospheric rivers of moisture to land areas, increasing the risk of flooding, like the U.S. West Coast has been experiencing.

Warmer oceans provide extra moisture to the atmosphere. That extra moisture fuels storms, especially hurricanes. The result can be prodigious rainfall, as the U.S. saw from Ida, and widespread flooding as occurred in many places over the past year.

The storms may also become more intense, bigger and last longer. Several major flooding events have occurred in Australia this past year, and also in New Zealand. Bigger snowfalls can also occur in winter provided temperatures remain below about freezing because warmer air holds more moisture.

In the oceans, warm water sits on top of cooler denser waters. However, the oceans warm from the top down, and consequently the ocean is becoming more stratified. This inhibits mixing between layers that otherwise allows the ocean to warm to deeper levels and to take up carbon dioxide and oxygen. Hence it impacts all marine life.

We found that the top 500 meters of the ocean has clearly been warming since 1980; the 500-1,000 meter depths have been warming since about 1990; the 1,000-1,500 meter depths since 1998; and below 1,500 meters since about 2005.

The slow penetration of heat downward means that oceans will continue to warm, and sea level will continue to rise even after greenhouse gases are stabilized.

The final area to pay attention to is the need to expand scientists’ ability to monitor changes in the oceans. One way we do this is through the Argo array – currently about 3,900 profiling floats that send back data on temperature and salinity from the surface to about 2,000 meters in depth, measured as they rise up and then sink back down, in ocean basins around the world. These robotic, diving and drifting instruments require constant replenishment and their observations are invaluable.

Kevin Trenberth is Distinguished Scholar, NCAR; Affiliated Faculty, University of Auckland.

The Conversation arose out of deep-seated concerns for the fading quality of our public discourse and recognition of the vital role that academic experts could play in the public arena. Information has always been essential to democracy. It’s a societal good, like clean water. But many now find it difficult to put their trust in the media and experts who have spent years researching a topic. Instead, they listen to those who have the loudest voices. Those uninformed views are amplified by social media networks that reward those who spark outrage instead of insight or thoughtful discussion. The Conversation seeks to be part of the solution to this problem, to raise up the voices of true experts and to make their knowledge available to everyone. The Conversation publishes nightly at 9 p.m. on FlaglerLive. Previous Conversations: Tattoos’ Long and August History of Meanings Millions of Unemployed Are About to Hurt a Lot More as Benefits Run Out Buried Power Lines Aren’t Fail-Safe Behind Hurricane Ida’s Record-Shattering Rainfall in New York and the Northeast: Yes, It’s Global Warming When Human Life Begins Is a Question of Politics, Not Biology How Warm Gulf Patch Quickly Turned Hurricane Ida Into a Monster Storm Is It a Crime to Forge a Vaccine Card? This Is What Happens to Child Migrants at the Border The Story of the Women Behind the First Domestic Violence Shelters The Supreme Court Ended the Eviction Ban. Now What? 4 Questions Answered. ISIS-K, the Taliban’s Rival Group Behind the Kabul Airport Attack Clues to Misinformation Behind Public’s and Right-Wing Media’s Misuses of Vaccine Database Essential and Often Overlooked: America’s Public Library Workers Behind the Feds’ Tesla Investigation, and the Future of Self-Driving Cars The Meaning of Happiness from the Ashes of Pompeii Ashura Explained: the Shiite Muslim Holiday that Inspires Millions You’re Free to Refuse the Covid Vaccine. But It’s Un-American. Why I No Longer Think We Can Eliminate Covid Schools and Covid Safety: What Works and What Doesn’t Afghanistan and American Hubris Social Justice Begins With Honest History Afghanistan Was Always a Losing Battle Wonder and Promise of the Appalachian Trail Holocaust Survivors Got Reparations. Why Not Slavery’s Descendants? The Immense Tax Sums Religious Organizations Don’t Pay Don’t Be Too Quick to Claim Voter Suppression Millions of Working Americans Still Can’t Afford Food and Rent Understanding the IPCC Climate Report’s Dire WarningsFor Palestinians and Israelis, Human Rights and Another Grand Bargain Cults and Cultism Atomic Bomb Foresight Exploded Long Before Hiroshima Changing Crime Reporting Practices to Do Less Harm When Americans Recall their Roots, they Open Up to Immigration Where Canadian Dads Are Warm, Kind and Gentle, American Dads Punish Harshly and Lack Emotional Support Trump Endorsements Make a Difference, But Not the Way Candidates Hope They Do Is It Time to Retire the ‘My Body, My Choice’ Slogan? Narcissists How This Summer Is Changing Our Understanding of Extreme Weather Cautionary Tale for Coastal Towns: What Miami’s Sea Wall Will Not Protect Here’s Why You Need to Mask Up Again Indoors, Even If Vaccinated Can We Cancel ‘Cancel Culture’? Ghostly, Soulless, Absurd Olympics At Origin of Cuba’s Mass Protests: Covid Misery and U.S. Economic Sanctions Bias Is Natural. How You Manage it Defines Your Ability to Be Just. Why Some Younger Evangelicals Are Leaving the Faith The Inherent Racism of Anti-Vaxx Movements 63% of Workers who File an EEOC Discrimination Complaint Lose Their Jobs Behind Ben & Jerry’s West Bank Decision: Israel Is Losing the Battle for Public Opinion Domestic Violence 911 Calls Increased During Lockdown, but Police Reports and Arrests Declined Yes, Covid Can Cause Infertility and Sexual Dysfunction. But Vaccines Cannot. Is Islamophobia Hate Speech? The Seduction of Propaganda Ignoraunce Incarno: The Wrongheaded Calls to Cancel Chaucer Most Covid Deaths in England Now Are in the Vaccinated. Here’s Why That Shouldn’t Alarm You High-Tide Flood Risk Will Increase 5 to 15 Times Over Next 15 Years, Putting Coastal Economies at Risk Cuba Protests: 4 Essential Reads on Dissent in the Post-Castro Era Zaila Avant-garde, 2021 National Spelling Bee Champ, Stands Where Black Children Were Once Kept Out Trump Before Trump: When Nixon VP Spiro Agnew Attacked News Media Five Lessons on Bringing Truth Back to Politics Yes, States Got More Money from Washington than they Needed for Covid Relief Trump Can’t beat Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in Court but the Fight Might Be Worth More Money than a Win Should Supreme Court Justices Have Term Limits? Critical Race Theory: What it Is and What, Gov. DeSantis, It Is Not Debating Weightlifter Laurel Hubbard, 1st Transgender Woman in Individual Sports at Olympics With Support for Bill Cosby, Phylicia Rashad Becomes One of Several Deans to Tweet Themselves Into Trouble See the Full Conversation Archives

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